Women Angry About Abortion Bans Tipped Poland's Election — A Precursor To The U.S.?

-Analysis-

WARSAW — Over the past 30 years, only four countries in the world — El Salvador, Nicaragua, Poland and the United States — have rolled back abortion rights that had been acquired by previous generations.

Last October, In Poland's most consequential and closely watched election in memory, a moderate coalition led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, ousted from power the conservative-nationalist Law and Justice (PiS). The unapologetically pro-Catholic PiS, which had been in power for eight years, had introduced some of the most rigid abortion restrictions in the world.

Political analysts in Poland largely attributed the conservatives' defeat to the mobilization of women in the years and months leading up to the election, in large part spurred on by the abortion issue.

Now, less than two months ahead of the first presidential election in the U.S. since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade's constitutional right to abortion, some see potential lessons to be learned from Polish politics in the showdown between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

In last year's election in Poland, more women than ever — an impressive 75% — cast their votes, in comparison to 73% of eligible male voters, marking the first time in Polish history that more women than men voted in a national election. What’s more, women made up a larger proportion of the eligible Parliamentary candidates on the ballot than in any previous cycle.

Protests to the ballot box

These historic turnout numbers did not come out of nowhere, but were the fruit of years of sustained political pressure. Women’s rights moved to the forefront of Polish politics in late 2020, after Poland’s highest court, which had largely been installed by PiS governments, effectively banned all abortions, including those when there are severe fetal abnormalities. In the years since this court ruling, Poland, a country of about 40 million people, has had only a few hundred legal abortions each year.

The new bans triggered mass protests throughout the country, taking place in the more liberal capital of Warsaw, as well as in smaller, more conservative provinces. These were among the biggest protests in modern Polish history, second only to the Solidarity movement of the 1980s and the end of communism.

During this so-called “Women’s Strike,” tens of thousands of women gathered to demand a return of their reproductive rights, protesting the government as well as the conservative values of the Catholic church.

While the movement failed to reverse the Constitutional Tribunal’s decision, its impact was bound to be felt at the polls. Following months of campaigning, public support for abortion rights steadily rose, support for the government decreased, and activists were able to form their own political coalitions.

Ahead of the national elections, the right to choose became central to the opposition’s campaign, and, combined with existing frustrations and ongoing mobilization among Polish women, won them the majority.

Now, as the right to choose comes to the forefront of the U.S. elections, American women, particularly younger voters, may be Harris’s path to the White House.

Post-Roe America

In 2022, Americans were shocked by the overturning of Roe V. Wade, the landmark case allowing women the right to choose. In the 6-3 decision, three of the six justices supporting this decision had been appointed by Trump.

Harris directly attacked the former President on this issue during this week’s debate, stating that “In over twenty states, there are Trump abortion bans which make it criminal for a doctor or a nurse to provide health care”.

Like women in Poland, who are forced to search for abortion pills through mutual aid networks or, in the cases of later-term pregnancies, travel abroad in order to terminate their pregnancies, post-Roe American women are faced with a difficult choice: carry their pregnancies to term or travel out of state for expensive medical care.

Like Polish doctors, who face threats of imprisonment for up to three years for performing an illegal abortion, medical professionals in Mississippi face felony charges for terminating a woman’s pregnancy. Like women in Poland, who have lost their lives due to septic shock during late-term pregnancy complications, American women fear that their lives will be at risk.

These include Amanda Zurawski, a woman who barely survived sepsis after being denied a life-saving abortion for three days. She later sued the state of Texas for denying her vital health care, and spoke at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

“A second Trump term would rip away even more of our rights: passing a national abortion ban, letting states monitor pregnancies and prosecute doctors, restricting birth control and fertility treatments,” Zurawski said in her speech at the convention. “We cannot let that happen. We need to vote as if lives depend on it — because they do.”

Bringing out the vote

That abortion has become an issue at the forefront of American politics has not been lost on pollsters or any of the politicians themselves. Since the overturning of Roe, more than 20 states have imposed restrictions or outright bans on abortion.

Among Democrats, support for abortion rights is at historic highs, with 86% of Democratic voters supporting the right to choose, according to a report from the Public Religion Research Institute. This is compared to just 71% in 2010. Among younger women, these numbers are even higher.

In this closely-fought election, Harris is leading Trump in the double-digits when it comes to the female vote. With the campaign recognizing the potential in younger women turning out to vote, they have pulled out all available stops to maximize their potential in this key demographic. Most recently, Harris won the endorsement of singer superstar Taylor Swift, a figure so renowned that some argued it may have a larger impact on the poll numbers than last week’s debate.

For now, this strategy seems to be working: 70% of young American women support Harris, bringing her potentially closer to the White House by next year. But like in Poland, it may all come down to turnout, turnout, turnout.