WARSAW — Following the 2020 election, Donald Trump seemed all but done for. The Jan. 6 insurrection on the Capitol and his refusal to accept the results cost the former president the support of key party figures and advisors, including his own Vice President, Mike Pence.
Subsequent prosecutions appeared destined to either tie Trump up in court, or possibly land him in jail. When he was convicted of falsifying business records, it seemed that he would go down in history as a one-term president, known best for his outlandish personality and trouble with the law.
For the latest news & views from every corner of the world, Worldcrunch Today is the only truly international newsletter. Sign up here.
But against all odds, Trump managed not only to win the Electoral College vote, as he did in 2016, but to become the first Republican presidential candidate to win the popular vote in 20 years. With an unapologetic far-right campaign, he managed not only to mobilize his MAGA base, but also to gain the support of key swing voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and sway demographics, including young people, Latinos and African Americans, that most thought were out of his reach.
For populist and right-wing leaders abroad, Trump’s victory is cause for celebration. Those in power like Hungary's Viktor Orban, Argentina's Javier Milei and Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu see Trump as an ally to reinforce their hold on power.
But even more notable may be Trump's inspiration for those leaders around the world who have lost power — and want it back. For parties like Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS), or for leaders like Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, the Trump playbook can be a path back to the seat of power.
No longer on the margins in Poland
The Polish Law and Justice party was in power for eight years, and their conservative agenda included implementing a near-total abortion ban, establishing “anti-LGBT zones” in the country, and adopting some of the harshest anti-migration stances in Europe.
But last November, PiS was soundly defeated by a coalition of opposition parties, led by centrist, pro-Europe Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Now, as Poland gears up for their presidential elections, which will take place next year, Trump’s victory is a cause for hope among the recently-defeated right. PiS members were so thrilled by Trump’s win that some party leaders chanted his name in Parliament.
His victory is the hope that history will be reversed
Polish President Andrzej Duda, who faced criticism in 2020 for refusing to congratulate then President-elect Joe Biden on his victory, was quick to congratulate Trump via X. Sławomir Mentzen, a leader of the far-right nationalist party Konfederacja, also expressed congratulatory marks via the social media platform:
“His victory is the hope that history will be reversed,” he said.
In spite of high hopes, PiS insiders themselves admit that the electoral differences between Poland and the U.S. mean that such trends are not entirely transferable.
“It is impossible to translate the results in the U.S. into our situation. And we don't have to bet on the Polish Trump. The system there is two-party, you are either a Democrat or a Republican. And even if a Republican despises Trump and he is not the candidate of his dreams, he will still vote for him,” an anonymous advisor to PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski told Polish Daily Gazeta Wyborcza.
Still, it is worth noting that in terms of issues, some of PiS' most controversial positions, particularly around migration, are now no longer on the far margins of European politics.
Bolsonaro prepares his return, juggles court cases
When Brazil elected Jair Bolsonaro president in 2019, the comparisons to Trump were instant. Like Trump, he was elected by a base dissatisfied with the state of the Brazilian economy, after the country experienced a severe economic crisis in 2014. He also was a vocal opponent of abortion, environmental protections, affirmative action, and COVID-19 lockdowns.
His base is similar to Trump’s, with his staunchest support coming from white males, conservatives, and the Christian right. And, just as Trump supporters staged an insurrection on the Capitol following his 2020 loss, Bolsonaro loyalists stormed federal buildings and called for a coup d’etat when Bolsonaro lost in 2022 to President Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva.
Local right-wing leadership remains hopeful that he could be able to return.
But while Trump’s victory was ultimately not impeded by his criminal charges, Bolsonaro may face a harder road after a ruling of the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court, which barred him from seeking office until 2030 for attempting to undermine the election results.
Because of this, analysts say that his chances for victory in the next presidential election cycle may appear remote. Still, he could find a way to overturn the ruling, and local right-wing leadership remains hopeful that he could be able to return.
"Trump's victory will inspire conservatives worldwide and reinforce the movement in Brazil to re-elect Jair Bolsonaro as president in the 2026 elections," Valdemar Costa Neto, head of Bolsonaro's Liberal Party, said.
Similarly, these officials pointed to the growth of right-wing electorates globally, using not only Trump, but also Javier Milei in neighboring Argentina, and the recent results of the municipal elections in Brazil.
Zuma rises from the ashes
Meanwhile, in the last June's South African elections, the African National Congress (ANC) — Nelson Mandela’s party that led the country out of apartheid — lost its majority for the first time in history, opening the door for political disruption.
What’s more, the newly-formed MK party, led by disgraced former President Jacob Zuma, managed to secure 14% of the vote. Zuma resigned as president in 2018, clouded by multiple corruption allegations. Prior to his dismissal, Zuma was marred by scandal, including a highly publicized rape trial, instability in his cabinet, and failure to disclose his assets.
In spite of it all, Zuma managed to keep a base of loyal supporters, winning elections even when slogans such as “Anyone But Zuma” stood in his way. Now, experts say that Zuma, who mastered the populist-entertainer playbook long before Trump entered politics, is doing his best to disrupt South Africa’s political scene.
“I think what he wants to do is leverage his political capital to support the MK party and frustrate the ANC,” Ongama Mtimka, a politics and history lecturer at Nelson Mandela University, told Al Jazeera, “He is a very vindictive politician.”
Sound familiar?