November 2-3
- Camp David “betrayal”
- K-pop awards U.S. debut
- Portable bathtub
- … and much more.
⬇️ STARTER
Here's why you (still) shouldn't trust the polls
-Analysis-
Imagine this: your weather app promises a sunny fall weekend, so you head out for a hike. But halfway there, a nasty thunderstorm hits, leaving you soaked and shivering. The next week, the forecast looks bright again, so you give it another shot. Yet again, it's cold and stormy. You barely dodge the rain, but your trip is ruined. Would you trust that forecast a third time?
Millions of Americans find themselves grappling with a similar dilemma, with the rest of the world watching in suspense. The presidential election is set for November 5th, and until recently, most polls showed Kamala Harris leading against Donald Trump. Now, it’s a nail-biter. If the results in key swing states deviate by even half a percentage point from what the polls predict, the outcomes could be dramatically different. And let’s face it, American pollsters haven’t had the best track record lately.
Let’s rewind a bit: In 2016, the polls placed Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump, yet she lost. Fast forward four years, and while the polls correctly predicted Joe Biden’s victory, they had him winning by a much wider margin than reality reflected — it was a close call.
Actually, the size of the miscalculation in 2020 was even greater than in 2016. In Wisconsin, for example, the polls had Biden 10 points ahead of Trump, but on election day, the margin was a mere half a point.
Not only was the public shocked, but the pollsters themselves began to second-guess their methods. Their professional association, the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), set up a task force in 2016 and 2020 to investigate the problem. "We have learned a lot and improved a few things," says Frauke Kreuter, President of AAPOR. “But we may have created new challenges in the process."
Never have pollsters had access to the amount of personal data they have today, and yet forecasts have actually gotten worse in recent years. What is happening?
To figure this out, we need to dig into how election polls are conducted. The core issue for pollsters is that they can only survey a slice of the population and must make broader assumptions based on that small sample. It’s akin to picking a carton of strawberries: you choose one based solely on what’s visible on top. What if the fruit underneath has gone bad, or isn't yet ripe?
To avoid such unpleasant surprises, pollsters try their best to build a representative sample. Respondents should be randomly selected, but reflect the entire population. If the sample does not include people under 30 or women without a university degree, additional participants must be recruited from these groups.
Just as there is usually one mushy strawberry at the bottom of the basket, representative samples are never flawless. Polls are always a few percentage points off. This happens with all polls, in every election, everywhere in the world.
But America works in a very peculiar way: Anyone who scores 50.1 percent gets all the electors in a state. Even small mistakes can change the outcome. Although Hillary Clinton received more votes nationwide in 2016, she lost the election because Trump received a razor-thin majority of votes in the decisive states. [...]
— Read the full article by Christian Endt for Die Zeit, translated into English by Worldcrunch.
🎲 OUR WEEKLY NEWS QUIZ
What do you remember from the news this week?
1. Shia cleric Naim Qassem has been named to replace the late Hassan Nasrallah as the head of what Lebanese political party and militant group?
2. How many soldiers is North Korea said to have sent to aid Russia on the Ukrainian front?
500+ / 2,000+ / 10,000+ / 250,000+
3. Which European country was hit by the worst floods in decades?
4. New York’s Morgan Library & Museum discovered a previously unknown manuscript of:
a novel by Maya Angelou / music by Frederic Chopin / poetry by T. S. Eliot / a song by Taylor Swift
[Answers at the bottom of this newsletter]
#️⃣ TRENDING
Nigerian MP Alex Ikwechegh publicly apologized for the viral video of him slapping and verbally abusing a taxi driver, Stephen Abuwatseya, during an argument over food delivery. It all began when Abuwatseya, delivering snails to Ikwechegh’s residence, asked him to come outside to collect his order. Ikwechegh expected the driver to deliver the food to its front door and accused him of disrespect. It all escalated into threats and slaps, which Abuwatseya recorded and published. Following the incident, Ikwechegh acknowledged the need for “restraint and self-control,” extending apologies to the police and the Nigerian House of Representatives, which has referred the case to its ethics committee. He also expressed a commitment to personal growth and said he wanted to reconcile with the driver.
🎭 5 CULTURE THINGS TO KNOW
• Abu Dhabi to host new Biennial of Public Art. The inaugural edition of the biennial, under the theme “Public Matter,” will explore the concept of a public space in the Gulf city and feature more than 70 local and international artists, including Emirati artists Hashel Al Lamki and Farah Al Qasimi and Bogotá-based collective Arquitectura Expandida. Colombian artist Oscar Murillo will unveil an 80-meter-long canvas stretched across Abu Dhabi’s Corniche. Running between Nov. 15 and April 30, performances and site-specific installations will be set in key sites in Abu Dhabi city and Al Ain.
• In memoriam: Cuban trumpeter Manuel “Guajiro” Mirabal, one of the last survivors of legendary Cuban band Buena Vista Social Club, died in Havana at 91; Oscar-nominated U.S. actress Teri Garr, best known for her work in movies including Young Frankenstein, Mr Mom and Tootsie, died aged 79 after a 20-year battle with multiple sclerosis; renowned Egyptian actor and director Hassan Youssef passed away at the age of 90; U.S. filmmaker Paul Morrissey, who collaborated with Andy Warhol and the Velvet Underground, died at 86.
• Disney+ crime series changes name after Italian court blocks release. The global entertainment giant said Avetrana - This is not Hollywood, an Italian-language fiction series based on the 2010 murder of a 15-year-old girl by her family members, will be called instead This is not Hollywood. This comes after the mayor of Avetrana successfully complained to a court that the show gave his small town a bad name, which forced Disney to halt the release of the series on its Disney+ platform last week.
• Release of posthumous Liam Payne single postponed. Producer Sam Pounds, who had announced the release of “Do No Wrong” on Nov. 1, three weeks after the death of the former One Direction member, said he will delay the song until he gets the family’s blessing. “Even though we all love the song, it’s not the time yet,” Pounds said in a post on social media, adding he wanted all proceeds to go to a charity of the family’s choosing. Payne, aged 31, died after falling from a hotel balcony in Argentina.
• K-pop awards show to make U.S. debut in November. The 2024 Mnet Video Music Awards (MAMA), one of K-pop’s most prestigious year-end music events, will be partly held in the U.S. next month, with the ceremony beginning in Los Angeles on Nov. 21 at the Dolby Theater, before continuing at the Kyocera Dome Osaka in Japan on Nov. 22-23. This will mark the first time the MAMA Awards will be held outside Asia since it first launched in 1999.
🎃👻 SMILE OF THE WEEK
One Dallas home stole the show this Halloween with a setup that gave goosebumps to people walking and driving by. In addition to the usual grinning pumpkins, sneaky skeletons, and ghosts floating through the yard, this must-see featured an extensive gallery of rogues, including Freddy Krueger, Pennywise and Ghostface, guaranteed to instill the Halloween spirit into everyone.
📰 IN OTHER NEWS
🗳️ A Donald Trump victory at the U.S. elections would likely mean that the expected calm in the confrontation between Israel and Iran in the coming weeks will be just a warrior’s rest.
— AL-MANASSA
🍗 As American fried chicken chains KFC, Popeyes and Wingstop expand in France, local fast-food entrepreneurs as well as Michelin-starred chefs are trying to nab a part of this growing market. What is behind this trend sweeping the land of the traditional Sunday roast chicken?
— LES ECHOS
🇪🇬 In Egypt, public support for a Palestinian homeland is deeply felt but constrained by the government that has had 40 years of diplomatic relations with Israel. Will the bloody war just across the border in Gaza change something?
— WORLDCRUNCH
⚡ Cuba’s current energy crisis is a dramatic illustration, symbolic and otherwise, of the overall downfall of a country that could have followed the successful models of its Asian cousins.
— CLARÍN
👨❤️👨 A psychologist-turned-matchmaker founded the Dating Agency to help Polish single people tired of looking for love on dating apps. But today, many are back on Tinder.
— GAZETA WYBORCZA
🛁 BRIGHT IDEA
Fancy a soak but don’t have a tub? At the annual DESIGNART festival that recently took place in Tokyo, Japanese company LIXIL unveiled their latest creation: Bathtope, is a nomad bathtub made from a single sheet of fabric that can be fitted to any and every shower room. Once hanging on the walls and filled with water, it allows people to enjoy the occasional bath (within reason!) when there’s no bathtub around.
👓 WORLDCRUNCH MAGAZINE
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⏩ LOOKING AHEAD
• The U.S. presidential elections will take place on Tuesday Nov. 5. Democrat candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican leader and former president Donald Trump held their last rallies in key swing states throughout the week to convince undecided voters. Recent polls have shown a very tight race between the two candidates.
• Moldova will hold a second round for its presidential election on Nov. 3, as pro-Western president Maia Sandu struggles to secure a second term against Aleksandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor backed by the pro-Russian Socialist party.
• The "Arab Week at UNESCO" event, organized by the Arab Group at the United Nations and at the initiative of Saudi Arabia, will take place on Nov. 4 and 5 in Paris. It will showcase the rich Arab cultural heritage, contribute to building dialogue and will feature exhibitions, a market and various seminars.
News quiz answers:
1.Shia cleric Naim Qassem will replace Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike last month, as the new leader of Hezbollah, Lebanon's militant group announced.
2. The U.S. announced an estimated 10,000 North Korean soldiers have been sent to Russia, up from an initial U.S. estimate of 3,000 last week.
3. More than 150 people were killed in the region of Valencia in Spain after it was hit by its worst flooding in decades, when a year’s worth of rain fell in just hours.
4. The Morgan Library & Museum of New York discovered in its vault an unknown music score from classical Polish composer Frederic Chopin, simply titled “Waltz.”
✍️ Newsletter by Worldcrunch
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