CAIRO — By day's end on Tuesday, Israel’s military was in firm control of the Palestinian side of the Rafah crossing point between the Gaza Strip and Egypt.
Israeli officials made a point that the early morning incursion was a targeted, limited operation. For now, the entry into the southern Gaza city has halted the flow of humanitarian aid to the war-torn strip, and threatens to derail concerted efforts to establish a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
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The attack — which included tanks taking over the crossing gates from the Palestinian side and the Israeli flag raised over the crossing — was well short of the full ground invasion of Rafah that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been promising.
The city, on the southernmost point of Gaza, is currently hosting some 1.4 million people, most of whom have fled Israel’s bombardment elsewhere in the coastal enclave. The overnight offensive has alarmed humanitarian workers given that the Rafah crossing is the lifeline for aid delivery to Gaza’s population who are on the brink of famine.
The Israeli military described the incursion as “a very precise” counterterrorism operation that aimed at destroying Hamas infrastructure in the area used to launch recent attacks on Israeli soldiers.
So what was the point of the attack? And what comes next? It's notable that Israel declined to say how long it planned to stay in Rafah, which it has long viewed as a main route for smuggling arms into Gaza.
"Precise" counterterrorism
The incursion has come amid diplomatic efforts to stop the fighting as part of a deal to release hostages held by Hamas. Just hours before, Hamas said it accepted an Egyptian-Qatari mediated ceasefire proposal. That surprise announcement may have put pressure, both external and domestic, on Netanyahu to agree on the deal. His government has sent a delegation to joint indirect negotiations in Cairo with Hamas. CIA director William Burns is attending the talks along with Egyptian and Qatari officials, according to an Egyptian official.
Families of hostages and their supporters implored Israel’s leaders to accept the deal, with protesters marching in Tel Aviv Monday night demanding a deal.
“Now is the time to demand from the negotiation team and all international partners — do not return without a signed deal!” the Hostages Families Forum said in a statement.
A show for home audience
Experts in the region say Israel's military actions in Rafah ultimately amounts to a “show” directed to Israel's domestic public. Ori Goldberg, an expert on the Middle East, said Netanyahu and his government want to “tell the Israeli Jewish public … that Israel has "operated" in Rafah.”
He said that by accepting the deal, Hamas took “control (of) the narrative” and forced Israel to respond to its position.
“Hamas has nothing to gain from fighting so it doesn't fight,” Goldberg said. “In its own mind, Israel cannot appear "weak", as acceptance of a deal has been spun as "surrendering" here by the prime minister (Netanyahu) and his government.”
Some wonder if the Israeli incursion, a kind of "light" version of the promise to invade Rafah, will be enough to placate the hawks in Netanyahu's camp, so he can push forward with the ceasefire and return of the hostages.
Tensions with Egypt
Tuesday’s incursion is likely to strain the already tense ties with Egypt, the first Arab country to establish diplomatic ties with Israel after the Camp David accords in 1979.
Egypt's foreign ministry condemned Israel’s takeover of the Rafah crossing, calling the move a "dangerous escalation." It called Israel to exercise “the utmost levels of restraint” and “stay away” from policies that would threaten a potential truce with Hamas.
Egypt has previously warned that any offensive on Rafah, especially in the demilitarized Philadelphi corridor along the border, would threaten the peace treaty with Israel which the United States brokered between the two countries 45 years ago.
According to the treaty and its security arrangements both countries must coordinate any military operations along the borders. Egypt is concerned that an offensive on Rafah would force Palestinians to flee over the borders into Sinai Peninsula.