Is Putin Back To His Nuclear Brinksmanship In Zaporizhzhia?

Updated April 8, 2024 at 5:55 p.m.*

Of the 16 nuclear power plants in the Soviet Union, four were built in Ukraine. Until recently, the most infamous of these was Chernobyl. But now, all eyes are on the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, Zaporizhzhia, located in the south of Ukraine. The plant has become the new center of war in Ukraine since it was captured by Russia in March 4, 2022.

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and its 15 reactors effectively became a military base for the Russian army, and regularly at the center of Armored vehicles are deployed there, and missiles and artillery are launched from the territory of the nuclear plant. In August 2023, at least three people were killed and nine others wounded in a Russian missile attack.

And now new strikes have targeted Zaporizhzhia, killing three people on April 8, in a second day of deadly attacks on the area. The same say, two drone strikes reportedly took aim at the nuclear facility, with Russia blaming Ukraine for the attacks. It is a charge that Kiyv has staunchly denied.

Ukraine cannot respond to these attacks on the region without risking catastrophe — something Putin knows very well, as he is once again weaponizing the threat of nuclear disaster to help his invasion.

Potentially disastrous consequences for Ukraine

Already in June 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned about Russia using the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant as an element of aggression”. The Ukrainian president claimed to have "received information that Russia is considering a scenario of a terrorist attack at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant – a terrorist attack with a radiation release.”

Two months later, Eugene Kramarenko, head of the Ukrainian state agency for the management of the Chernobyl zone, said that in case of an accident at the Zaporizhzhia plant, the predicted area of damage could be close to 30,000 square kilometers. Zaporizhzhia currently contains about 18,000 liquid fuel assemblies, which is 10 times more than Chernobyl at the time of its nuclear accident in 1986.

In the event of a nuclear disaster, close to two million square kilometers could be potentially radioactively contaminated.

Russia has accused Ukraine of shelling its own nuclear power plant, but these allegations are illogical given the potentially devastating consequences for Ukraine itself.

Another pawn in Putin's playbook

Instead, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has become another pawn in Putin’s playbook of intimidation and manipulation.

Putin has said that no one can win a nuclear war and that no such war should ever be started. But in the minds of Putin and the fanatics who support him, the threat of nuclear war is real enough.

Russian television has been airing propaganda for months, openly calling for a nuclear missile strike against "Russia's enemies," whether it be Ukraine, the U.S. or Britain. Putin himself at the time said, "We will go to heaven as martyrs, and they will just die."

Putin will not give up his advantage easily

But even though Putin has invaded a sovereign state and violated international laws, many political leaders still (somewhat naively) believe that Putin is bluffing and can be negotiated with.

As long as the war is still ongoing, protecting at least the Zaporizhzhia area as well as push for further sanctions to help drive Putin out of the nuclear power plant territory will remain priorities for Zelensky.

In the minds of Putin and the fanatics who support him, the threat of nuclear war is real enough.

But as in the past, his pleas will likely lead to calls for cooperate in preventing an accident at the facility: Nothing will happen, because this situation was much easier to prevent than to resolve.

This war cannot end at the negotiating table, only on the battlefield. Almost all world leaders and experts have already come to this sad conclusion.

Nuclear threat plays into Russia's hands, making Ukraine and the whole world fear Putin’s decisions. This is not an advantage Putin is expected to give up easily.

*Originally published August 18, 2022, this article was updated April 8, 2024 with updates about new drone strikes near the Zaporizhizhia power plant, enriched media and audio file.